The other night while my wife and I were having dinner with another couple we got into a discussion about whether it was safe to let our two children, ages 12 and 11, ride public transportation. Drawing on my own experience riding buses and trains through some tough neighborhoods as a city kid, I maintained that it was reasonably safe if one took elementary precautions. The other dad remained agnostic, but the women were adamant that my childhood experiences were of no relevance–crime is far worse now, random violence is more common, “there’s a lot of nuts out there,” etc. I argued that such fears were exaggerated, but without access to the facts the debate ended inconclusively. So tell me, Cecil–is the world today really so much more dangerous than when we were kids? –Frank Caplice, Chicago
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Some caveats before we get started: It’s tough enough comparing basic crime statistics over long periods of time. I’m not even going to get into the question of whether public transportation is more or less dangerous than it used to be, or whether crime affecting children (as opposed to crime in general) has gone up or down. You also understand that at any given time the amount of crime varies greatly in different cities, in different neighborhoods, in the city versus the suburbs, for different socioeconomic groups, etc. That said, you see some interesting things when you compare current U.S. crime statistics with those of the past. A few scenarios:
You grew up in the 40s, 50s, or early 60s. Different story. People who were children then recall a much more peaceful time than now, and it was. The violent crime rate in 1960 was under 200 per 100,000, less than 40 percent what it is today. Crime spiked upward around 1963 and increased rapidly during the late 60s and early 70s. For baby boomers–and your columnist confesses to being one–this accords closely with their perception of what happened during those years: things started getting crazy after the Kennedy assassination, got worse during the urban riots of the late 60s, and were seriously bad by the 70s.
